Silicon Valley's elite is on edge awaiting results for California's Prop. 40 billionaire tax

Californians are voting on a proposal that could send a one-time, huge tax bill to the state's billionaires. Lester Cohen/Getty Images It could be days or weeks before a final tally on California's Prop. 40 "billionaire wealth tax." Early results give the "No" vote a commanding lead among both Silicon Valley elites and rural Hispanic counties. It could bring in $100 billion to plug a coming Medicare hole — or lose billions in tax revenue. The morning after the midterms, there's still no answer on California's billionaire wealth tax — and the final results may not be in for days or even weeks. As of around 10:30 a.m. Eastern time Wednesday, 44.4% of California voters had thrown their support behind Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time "5% tax on certain taxpayers with assets over $1 billion." With about 60% of the vote in thus far, there's still plenty of time for the results to reverse, but the "No" vote has a commanding lead. More interesting is how support and opposition have played out across the Golden State. The socially-progressive urban strongholds of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Alameda County (home to Berkeley and Oakland) are favoring the measure with slim majorities. Meanwhile, many of the poorer and majority-Hispanic agricultural communities in California's Central Valley and desert regions have come out against the wealth tax by double-digit margins. Rural California has an unusual bedfellow in wealthy Silicon Valley. Counties representing Palo Alto, Cupertino, and the hilly Peninsula cities that house much of the Bay Area's venture capital and post-exit founder class have come out firmly against the tax so far. Other solid-blue Western states look set to pass narrower progressive tax measures. Washington state, which hasn't voted in favor of an income tax since 1932, went firmly against repealing a "millionaires tax" passed by the state legislature earlier this year. In Colorado, an amendment that would replace the state's flat income tax with a progressive scheme is leading by a thin margin. Amendment 87 would raise taxes on the wealthy and businesses while cutting them for most Coloradans. California's vote is the culmination of a showdown that's been shaking up Silicon Valley executives for months. Google cofounder Sergey Brin, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Affirm CEO Max Levchin, Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, DoorDash CEO Tony Xu, Kleiner Perkins Chairman John Doerr, and angel investor Chris Larsen have collectively poured millions into an opposition campaign. Brin himself has donated more than $100 million to the "No" team, per Cal Matters. State campaign-finance filings show committees opposing Prop. 40 had reported about $130 million in contributions through October 22, versus about $33 million for its supporters. Meanwhile, other tech executives are preparing, just in case they have to pay up. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg weighed moving out of the state. In October, the company created a new class of shares that would give Zuckerberg $20 billion in "immediate liquidity" if the vote passes — potentially allowing him to pay the tax without giving up some of his voting power. "I've got to tell you, I have not even thought about it once," Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said during a January spot on Bloomberg TV. "We chose to live in Silicon Valley, and whatever taxes they would like to apply, so be it. I'm perfectly fine with it." The vote has also split some regular political alliances. Progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has backed the billionaire tax, while California's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, opposes the measure. There are multiple paths to "No" If a majority of voters fill in the "Yes" bubble on Prop 40, roughly 200 people who were California residents on January 1, 2026, could face the one-time tax. That vote has two lurking trap doors — propositions 41 and 42 could ruin the "Yes" team's finale. As of Wednesday morning, the "No" side on Prop. 41 was winning with 52.5% of the vote, while Prop. 42 was up with 54.3% in favor. Both countermeasures were designed to undercut Prop. 40 by imposing new auditor reviews and prohibiting taxes on certain assets. If either measure receives more yes votes than Prop. 40, the billionaire tax could be stopped from taking effect, even if a majority of Californians vote for it. What California's billionaires could owe In broad terms, the measure would tax billionaires based on more than their salary. Taxable wealth would include ownership stakes in businesses, securities, investment accounts, art, collectibles, and intellectual property, among other assets. Real estate, pensions, and retirement accounts would generally be excluded. If the billionaire tax passes, it'll be due in 2027 — though taxpayers could spread out their payments across five years at a higher cost. Supporters say the measure could raise tens of billions of dollars over several years. A majority of the proceeds would go toward healthcare, with the remainder all